Washington vs California 11/27/2010

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Washington winning 41% of simulations, and California 59% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Washington commits fewer turnovers in 40% of simulations and they go on to win 52% when they take care of the ball. California wins 72% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Chris Polk is averaging 88 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (28% chance) then he helps his team win 57%. Shane Vereen is averaging 113 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (41% chance) then he helps his team win 69%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is CAL -7.5

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